Abstract—Since there have been cases of severe damage or even collapse of tunnel structures in recent major earthquakes, the seismic safety of tunnel structures has attracted widespread attention from scholars. In the performance-based seismic design, it is essential to establish a universal and practical demand model. In this paper, to facilitate the use in practice, the probabilistic demand models are developed by adding linear correction term and random term to the commonly used deterministic models. Two types of demand measures, the bending moment and the axial force of the lining to transverse seismic load are considered. The uniform design method is used to generate the samples to calibrate the model parameters, and the uncertainties of ground motions, site properties, and tunnel dimensions are considered. The parameters of the demand models are estimated by the least square method. The probabilistic demand models established in this paper can accurately and reliably evaluate the seismic demand of the tunnel and obtain the probabilistic distribution of the demand, which is of great significance for the seismic vulnerability analysis of tunnel structures.