Abstract—With a large amount of information, materials of seismic intensity in history include PGA, seismic intensity attenuation and effects of site and buildings etc. By analyzing well-recorded materials of seismic intensity in border areas of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia within 500 years, this paper proposes the method of seismic tendency assessment, which is similar to seismic risk analysis. The key to that way is establishing relation curve of seismic intensity and average repetition period, and applying it to the assessment of seismic risk. First, based on ArcGIS, we built a data bank of seismic intensity, and turned administrative map of border areas into longitude and latitude grid line with basic unit of 0.1°×0.1°; second, we got seismic intensity—frequency relation (namely hazard curve) of each unit by using the least squares fitting on seismic intensity materials; last, based on the hypothesis that the earthquake has cycle, we use hazard curve to estimate the repetition period of different intensities, intensity distribution of every 100 year, and exceeding probability of certain intensity (such as VI, VII andVIII) in 50 years in representative cities and counties of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia border areas;The calculation indicates that Datong-Huairen-Hunyuan and Huailai-Yanqing have high seismic risk and should be paid attention to.